One of the coolest things for fans of Star Wars Rebels was catching the Easter eggs for the animated series hidden in 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. On Yavin 4, we get a moment of little droid Chopper zipping around the Rebel base, we hear Captain Syndulla called on the P.A., and we see The Ghost herself among the Rebel ships at the Battle of Scariff. This was huge, because it meant at least Hera Syndulla and Chopper survive past Rebels, and other in-canon pieces put Hera at least at the Battle of Hoth and on Endor following the Empire’s tumble.

I’m ecstatic that Hera survives, because she’s easily my favorite character on the show, but following the story getting all the more perilous for our favorite band of rabble-rousers in the first half of Rebels season 4, I’m particularly worried about pretty much everybody else. While people like Wedge, Mon Mothma, Saw Gerrera, Grand Moff Tarkin, and Darth Vader will survive–duh–we’re placing odds on which Rebels characters will make it past the show’s finale.

Kanan Jarrus – Odds of Survival: 10%

I hate to be a downer, but I don’t think there’s a narrative chance in heck for one-time Last Padawan to make it out of the show alive. The reasons for this are many-fold. In the Star Wars universe, the role of the father-figure/mentor is almost always a tragic one. Let’s run down the list: Qui-Gon, dead; Obi-Wan, dead; Yoda, dead; Han Solo, dead; Luke Skywalker, dead. It’s a tough life, but as the universe’s story is beholden to Joseph Campbell’s “Hero’s Journey,” and seeing as Ezra is the Campbellian Hero of the piece, it falls to Kanan to be the sacrifice needed for him to actualize fully.

They’ve also been laying on the romance between Kanan and Hera incredibly thick, and there’s nothing more tragic than a star-crossed love affair, no pun intended (but actually yes intended). It’s going to be very sad, but unless they do an unprecedented mega-happy ending, Kanan’s gonna die.

Kallus – Odds of Survival 20%

Since the very beginning, one of the most interesting characters in all of Star Wars Rebels was the clever and resilient Imperial enforcer, Agent Kallus. When we eventually found out that he’s a secret double agent supplying intel to the Rebellion, it was extra thrilling. We didn’t see it coming, but we’re excited this complex and rich character is one of the good guys. But it’s that very fluidity in loyalties that make him all the more likely to bite the big one some time this season. Thrawn already knows Kallus’ true idenity, which is a very bad thing, so Kallus only really has one chance of survival, and that’s to just escape when he can. This seems unlikely, and he’ll either be killed or die in a heroic final act.

Captain Rex – Odds of Survival 25%

It was such a treat when the best clone trooper from Star Wars: The Clone Wars returned in Rebels and became an important character, even after his initial feud with Kanan. Rex is a beloved character and that makes him less likely to survive. He’s a past-his-prime clone, and it seems increasingly likely that the old guard will fully give way to the new. I would love it if they were able show us that he was with Hera on the Ghost during Rogue One, but he’s got the least narrative relevance to stick around. The other clone troopers along with him could go either way, but Rex’s death would be a big one, and one that would pack a heartstring-wallop. And since executive producer Dave Filoni has already said Ahsoka will return, it makes a lot of sense for Rex to see her one last time and go out in a blaze of glory.

Ezra Bridger – Odds of Survival 50%

Ezra is our de facto hero in the series. We’ve followed him from his early days on Lothal as a tiny thorn in the side of the occupying Imperial forces, to joining the crew of the Ghost, to learning the ways of the Force and the Jedi, and ultimately becoming one of the Rebellion’s most important and notorious members. The entire show has been about his growth, but he’s also been tempted more and more by the Dark Side, thanks in no small part to the influence of Darth Maul. Even though Maul is gone, Ezra’s tie to the Dark Side could still grow.

It’s pretty likely Ezra will make it all the way to the end, but I think it’s just as likely he’ll die heroically or after falling to the Dark Side and forcing Kanan to face him. Rebels has tied very heavily in with the new movies as it goes on, and the balance between Light and Dark was a big part of the story long before it was a theme in The Last Jedi. Rey chose the Light, but that doesn’t mean Ezra will. And hey, there’s still the bananas theories that Ezra is Snoke, or DJ, or that he goes off with Saw Gerrera and dies on Jedha, so who can say? All I know is there’s no other Jedi besides Obi-Wan and Yoda once A New Hope starts.

Zeb Orrelios – Odds of Survival 75%

Zeb has been one of Rebels most beloved and least utilized characters. He’s the last member of his species, the Lasat, and has a major ax to grind against the Empire, who committed genocide on his people due to their resistance to dominion. It would be a major shame for him to die before he sees the Empire fall, so I’m all for believing he stays a part of Hera’s crew and arrives with her on Endor to watch the evil regime tumble. That would do the viewers’ hearts real good.

That said, he’s not 100% safe. I think if the creators opt not to kill Rex, then Zeb is the one that would have the same kind of audience reaction were he to die. They’re cut from the same cloth, but I would be very surprised if they both lived.

Sabine Wren – Odds of Survival 90%

I think if any character has “plot armor” at this point, it’s the character who also has Mandalorian armor. We just had a major arc featuring her family on Mandalore, which ended with a new, hopeful regime rising up, and Sabine letting Bo-Katan wield the Darksaber and lead. Instead of this being the decision that leads to her downfall, I feel like this is the thing that will ensure Sabine’s survival. As tragic as it would be for her to die–as it would be tragic for any character–it lacks the narrative punch of someone like a Kanan or Ezra. Rebels has never struck me as the kind of show that would kill a character just for body count, and Sabine has finally become an actualized, adult hero. Nothing can come from her death.

Grand Admiral Thrawn – Odds of Survival 0%

Tthe greatest adversary the series has produced is the saved-from-non-canon Grand Admiral Thrawn, and this is a series that’s given us Inquisitors and brought back both Vader and Maul. Thrawn has narrative ties to both Ezra Bridger and Hera Syndulla, both of whom he sees as worthy opponents. For my money, though, it’s Hera who’s his true foe, and with Sato having sacrificed himself during the last major ship-to-ship assault, Thrawn has only one main Rebel threat to overcome. Aaaaaand, since Hera is is going to make it, that means Thrawn’s getting defeated big time. And it’ll feel so gooooooood.

What do you think? Am I way off on my numbers? Who do you think is destined to die a hero’s (or villain’s) death in the final episodes of Star Wars Rebels. Let us know below!

Images: Lucasfilm/Disney XD

Kyle Anderson is the Associate Editor for Nerdist. You can find his film and TV reviews here. Follow him on Twitter!

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